Harry Enten: Trump's Historically Awful Approval Ratings and Impact on House GOP

Trump's Declining Approval Ratings

• 📉 Donald Trump's approval ratings have significantly declined, falling underwater on every issue by three to nine percentage points.
• ⚡ His approval on the economy, previously considered his expertise, has dropped seven points since late February, a historically rapid slide.
• ⚠️ Tariffs have particularly rattled public perception, contributing to the negative trend.

Performance on Key Issues

• 📌 Trump is currently underwater on border security and immigration, issues he heavily promoted during his presidential campaign.
• 📊 The only issue where Trump shows positive approval is gender identity, which has little sway in voters' pocketbooks.
• 📉 On most other issues, including foreign affairs, inflation, and tariffs, his approval is well below his overall rating.

Impact on the House GOP

• 🎯 The House GOP is facing a significant challenge, with Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by an average of four points.
• 📊 This represents a seven-point shift away from the GOP since the November 2024 elections.
• 📉 Trump's net favorable rating among independents has plummeted from -9 points to -30 points, a historically awful slide.
• ⚠️ If Democrats maintain a 17-point lead with independents, Republicans are unlikely to hold onto the House of Representatives.

Historical Precedents

• 📈 History shows that the opposition party, currently the Democrats, tends to gain an average of 234 House seats when leading the generic ballot by at least four percentage points, as seen in 2006 and 2018.
• ⏳ The current trajectory suggests a challenging midterm election for Republicans if these trends continue.

Modern Presidential Approval

• 📊 Trump's current approval rating of 41% at the 100-day mark is the lowest among modern-day predecessors.
• 📉 Even his own approval rating eight years prior was higher than his current standing.