Harry Enten on Trump's Approval Ratings, Recession Odds, and Protests

Market Performance Under Trump

• 📉 The S&P 500 has dropped 15% under Donald Trump's presidency, a unique occurrence for a president inheriting a bull market.
• ⚠️ This drop is unprecedented in data going back to 1957, with only George W. Bush seeing a similar drop early in his term, but he inherited the dot-com bubble bust.

Rising Recession Fears

• 📊 Forecasts for a potential recession have significantly increased, with JP Morgan now estimating up to 60% chance, up from 40% in early March.
• 📈 Goldman Sachs' recession probability has risen to 35%, and averaging various forecasts suggests a 50/50 chance of a recession.
• 🌐 The prediction market also shows a rise in recession odds, from 30% at the start of the year to 60% currently.

Trump's Economic Approval Rating

• ⚠️ Donald Trump has the worst net approval rating on the economy at this point in his first term on record, standing at -12 points.
• ⏱️ He is the fastest president on record to go into negative territory regarding economic approval, achieving this in just two months, compared to Jimmy Carter who took 11 months.

Resurgence of Protests

• 📢 Google searches for "protests" have increased by 1,200% compared to a year ago, reaching their highest level on record.
• ✊ The current level of interest in protests matches or exceeds that seen in January 2017, indicating a significant resurgence of public resistance.
• ⚡ What was perceived as a lack of resistance at the start of Trump's second term has been supercharged, with protests and resistance now actively on the rise.