Gregory Branch on Private Equity Dislocations and Market Outlook to 2026

Market Dislocations in Private Markets

• 💡 Dislocations are expected to primarily impact the private equity and venture capital sectors.
• 📌 Firms may need to support existing positions even if they are no longer long-term feasible, especially for companies whose functions could be replaced by AI or other technologies.
• 🚀 The private credit space is also anticipated to experience dislocations.

Public Market Resilience and Earnings Growth

• 📈 The broader public market is considered relatively safe if strong double-digit earnings growth continues into 2026.
• 📊 The peak impact of physical and monetary stimulus is expected through the end of next year, supporting topline and earnings growth.
• ✅ If these tailwinds remain strong, the market may largely bypass the speed bumps from private market dislocations.

Consumer Spending and Economic Drivers

• 🧠 While the top 10% of earners drive 50% of consumption, the affordability crisis is a significant political issue impacting a plurality of voters.
• ⚠️ The bottom third of earners, accounting for only 15% of consumption, have less direct economic impact on GDP growth.
• 🎯 The speaker distinguishes between bullishness on consumption and a mixed outlook on the consumer's overall economic impact.

Inflation as a Political Issue

• 🗣️ Inflation is predicted to be a political issue rather than a purely economic one in 2026, intertwined with the affordability crisis.
• 📢 It will be a central theme in political campaigns, especially as it affects the bottom half of earners.
• 📉 Unless inflation accelerates significantly beyond current trends, it is unlikely to be a major economic drag, but its political salience will be high.