Gordon Chang on North Korea, China Instability, and Trump's Trade Deal Prospects

Xi Jinping's Meeting with Trump

• 🎯 There is a 50/50 chance that Xi Jinping will meet with President Trump, as Chinese leaders historically only announce meetings when a deal is certain.
• 💡 Xi Jinping might intentionally tank the US stock market by not reaching a deal or by issuing critical comments.
• ⚠️ The removal of nine senior flag officers, all Xi loyalists, suggests intense infighting within China's Communist Party, potentially preventing Xi from leaving the country or making him hesitant to do so.

China's Trade Stance and Instability

• ⚡ China's response to the US restricting software exports, in retaliation for China's rare earth controls, is described as "ludicrous" and indicative of Beijing's current problems.
• 📉 The political system in Beijing is worsening, making a trade deal less likely, despite President Trump's negotiation skills.
• 🚫 China may not see a benefit in engaging in constructive discussions with the United States due to internal political pressures and a reluctance to be held accountable for concessions.

North Korea's Missile Tests and Alliances

• 🚀 North Korea's recent short-range ballistic missile tests, timed just before President Trump's Asia trip, are "not coincidental".
• 🤝 These tests may have been ordered by Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping, or both, to complicate President Trump's diplomatic efforts.
• 🇰🇵 Kim Jong-un has clearly aligned himself with Vladimir Putin, making any arrangement with Pyongyang extremely difficult for the United States.