Gordon Chang on China's Political Turmoil and Arms Control

China's Trade Negotiator Visit

• 🇨🇳 China's top trade negotiator is visiting Washington, though not for formal negotiations, and is expected to meet with deputy-level officials.
• 🤝 The visit was reportedly not at the request of the U.S., suggesting China has significant reasons to seek a trade deal.

Political Instability in China

• ⚠️ Gordon Chang highlights political turmoil within the Chinese Communist Party as a major obstacle to authorizing concessions for a trade deal.
• 🤫 The Chinese system is described as extremely opaque, with major news organizations hesitant to report on internal instability.
• 📈 Despite the opacity, there are signs of instability and swirling rumors in Beijing, indicating potential future events.
• 🎖️ The Chinese military appears to have gained increased power within the party system, with implications yet to be determined.

Denuclearization and Arms Control

• 🇺🇸 President Trump views denuclearization as a key aim, discussing it with leaders of Russia and China.
• 🤝 Trump believes Russia would be willing to agree to an arms control deal due to its fragile state and inability to expand its arsenal.
• ❓ China presents a different challenge for arms control due to its resurgent military and the critical issue of verification.
• 🕵️ Verifying an arms control agreement with China would require American inspectors to have unfettered access, which China has historically been reluctant to permit.
• ⏳ Chang suggests that achieving a comprehensive arms control agreement with China is likely too ambitious for Trump's second term.