Gordon Chang on China's Military Turmoil, Missile Threats, and Economic Instability

China's Military Leadership Turmoil

• ⚠️ Xi Jinping's control over the Chinese military appears diminished, with evidence of internal power struggles and purges of top brass.
• 📌 Praises of "collective leadership" in military propaganda organs suggest a direct challenge to Xi's authority.
• 📉 The military is described as being in turmoil, which significantly impacts its current operational capability for major actions.

Military Buildup and Provocations

• 🚀 China has reportedly moved over 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles into silos near Mongolia, a move interpreted as holding the U.S. hostage.
• 🚧 The buildout of these missile silos is slower than expected, possibly due to financial constraints within the Chinese military.
• 🚨 While major operations are unlikely due to internal turmoil, China can still execute low-level provocations against Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan.

Economic Instability in China

• 📉 Underlying economic indicators suggest China's growth is closer to 2-3%, not the officially stated high figures, with potential for contraction.
• 📊 Negative fixed asset investment and declining CPI/PPI data point to a stagnant or zero-growth economy.
• ⚡ Xi Jinping may be incentivized to increase external tensions to consolidate power and prevent challenges from other Communist Party leaders.

Potential for Diversions and Agents

• 🌍 Beijing could create diversions in East Asia to distract from domestic issues or other geopolitical maneuvers.
• 🕵️ China maintains a significant presence of agents, operatives, and soldiers within the U.S., capable of causing damage if ordered.