Gordon Chang: China's Regime in 'Intense Turmoil' Amidst Hostage Situations and TikTok Deal Uncertainty

Hostage Situations and International Negotiations

• ⚠️ Americans detained in China are being treated as hostages, with their release potentially linked to trade negotiations.
• 📌 The Chinese regime is described as being in a period of intense turmoil, making it difficult to ascertain the motivations behind their actions.
• 💬 Negotiations on trade and other matters are complicated because Chinese negotiators may fear future criticism from whoever is in power.

Internal Instability within China

• 📉 Xi Jinping appears to have lost control of the Chinese military and diminished influence among civilian leaders.
• 🏛️ Reports suggest upcoming party meetings could see Xi Jinping stripped of some authority, impacting market perceptions.
• 🌍 This internal instability makes China less capable of dealing constructively with the rest of the world, with Chinese arrogance noted as being exceptionally high.

TikTok Deal Dynamics

• 🚫 China is expected to be extremely reluctant to give up control of TikTok's algorithm, a key sticking point in past deal negotiations.
• ⚖️ The ability to take TikTok away from China exists, similar to India's action, but the political will from leaders like President Trump is crucial.
• 🚨 The use of TikTok in the commission of crimes in the United States is cited as a deliberate policy choice by Beijing, suggesting it should be taken away.

Geopolitical Maneuvers and US Strategy

• ✈️ Reports indicate Trump blocked Taiwan's President from traveling to New York, potentially as a move to appease China.
• 📉 This action suggests the U.S. may perceive itself in a weak position, attempting to please China, a strategy that has historically not worked.
• 🗣️ A call for the U.S. to be stern with China is made, emphasizing that Beijing responds to firmness and that the U.S. should act in its own interest rather than to please Beijing.