Global EV Sales Growth Slowing: China Dominates, US Faces Headwinds

Global EV Market Outlook

• 📈 Global EV sales are projected to reach nearly 22 million units this year, accounting for about one in four cars sold, but growth is slowing to around 25% annually.
• 🇨🇳 China continues to lead the market, expected to account for nearly two-thirds of global sales in 2025, followed by Europe at 17%.
• ⚠️ For the first time in ten years, the long-term outlook for EV sales has been lowered compared to previous forecasts.

US EV Market Challenges

• 📉 The removal of federal tax credits (ending September 30th) and rollback of fuel economy targets are creating downward pressure on US sales.
• 🚗 US passenger EV sales are now projected to reach 4.1 million by 2030 (27% of all cars), a significant decrease from the previous forecast of 48%.
• ⚡ A potential pull-forward in purchases before tax credits expire is expected, followed by a downward trend.

China's Dominance and Emerging Markets

• 🔋 China is responsible for a significant portion of the EV supply chain, including battery manufacturing and overall production.
• 💡 While China dominates, EV sales growth is also occurring in emerging markets like Thailand and Brazil, which are showing higher EV adoption rates than some mature economies.
• 🌍 Electrification is no longer limited to premium vehicles and is successfully expanding to mass-market cars in price-sensitive regions.

Cost Parity and Charging Infrastructure

• 💰 China is currently the only market where electric cars are, on average, cheaper to buy than combustion vehicles.
• 📉 Falling battery prices are expected to lead to price parity between EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles in most markets within the next few years (2027-2028 for the US).
• 🔌 While charging infrastructure is growing rapidly, the focus is shifting from availability to reliability and cost of charging as key consumer concerns.