Gershon Baskin on Netanyahu, Trump, and a Gaza Ceasefire Deal

Trump's Influence on Gaza Ceasefire

• 🎯 Donald Trump's unpredictable nature is noted, but his recent statements suggest a strong desire for the Gaza war to end and hostages to be released.
• 🔑 If Trump is determined to end the conflict and is motivated by the possibility of a Nobel Peace Prize, he could compel Prime Minister Netanyahu to agree to a deal.
• 🤝 The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu is different from Netanyahu's past interactions with President Obama, suggesting Netanyahu may be more amenable to Trump's demands.

Haggling and Deal Details

• ⚖️ Behind closed doors, there might be haggling as Netanyahu attempts to convince Trump to extend the war, which is seen as crucial for his coalition's survival.
• 🗓️ A potential deal discussed involves a 60-day ceasefire and the release of only 50% of the hostages, a less comprehensive agreement than some might expect.
• 🇺🇸 The focus is on the meeting in Washington, with indirect talks in Qatar considered less critical at this juncture.

Netanyahu's Position and Domestic Pressures

• 📉 Despite perceived successes in depleting Hamas, Netanyahu faces domestic pressure from the Israeli public who want the war to end and hostages returned, and many desire new elections.
• 🗳️ Netanyahu has enough opposition votes to pass a deal, but faces challenges from the far-right in his cabinet, particularly Ben-Gvir, though he may be able to stall action until the summer recess.
• 💡 Netanyahu may not want a deal but feels compelled to make one because Trump desires it and Israel cannot eliminate Hamas entirely.

Future Governance of Gaza

• 🇵🇸 The Palestinian Authority has the responsibility to name credible and legitimate individuals to govern Gaza, which would be supported by Arab states for reconstruction.
• 💥 Hamas is described as having committed