Gerry Baker on Trump's Venezuela Policy and Machado's Nobel Prize Snub

Venezuela Leadership Change

• 🇺🇸 The recent events in Venezuela suggest a leadership change, possibly a collaborative effort with elements of the Maduro regime, rather than a direct US regime change.
• 🤝 This change may involve increased cooperation with the US, access to oil, and a less confrontational relationship, potentially including a loosening of ties between Venezuela and Cuba.
• 💡 The US captured Venezuela's leader and his wife on drug and weapon charges, with Donald Trump expressing interest in US oil companies profiting from Venezuelan reserves.

Machado's Nobel Prize and Trump's Reaction

• 🏆 María Corina Machado, the opposition leader who won the Nobel Peace Prize, is reportedly being snubbed by Donald Trump because she accepted the award rather than suggesting Trump should have received it.
• 🚫 This refusal to engage with Machado, despite her charismatic leadership potential, suggests the US may have been wary of the potential chaos following a forceful removal of the Maduro regime.

Geopolitical Implications and US Global Order

• 🌍 The US actions in Venezuela are seen by some as a redrawing of the global order, potentially harking back to 19th-century imperial power dynamics.
• ⚠️ Concerns are raised about the precedent set for military action and the potential for a quid pro quo with China regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea.
• 📈 The long-term implications for the global order and the actions of other world leaders remain uncertain, with Trump himself reportedly unable to predict the outcomes.

Oil Prospects and Energy Transition

• 🛢️ The idea of the US enriching itself on Venezuelan oil is considered overblown due to the difficulty and high cost of extracting the heavy, deep oil, requiring billions in capital outlay.
• 📉 Falling global oil prices also make it less profitable for American companies, especially shale producers, to increase production, potentially making Venezuelan oil less attractive.
• ⚡ However, one perspective argues that oil, and specifically Venezuelan oil's potential availability around 2030-2032, is central to meeting the future energy demands of AI, a factor Trump's energy policies prioritize.

Historical Precedents for US Intervention

• 📜 The US has a history of removing leaders on questionable legal grounds, citing examples like Iran (1953), Vietnam (1960s), Chile (1973), Panama (1989), and Iraq (2003).
• ⚖️ This pattern suggests the US will act to remove leaders deemed not in its interest if it perceives the cost to be relatively low.