General Philip Breedlove on Ukraine's Success with US Bradleys and HAWKS

Ukrainian Military Success

• 🇺🇦 Ukrainians are experiencing immense success on the battlefield, particularly with vehicles like the German Gepard and the US Bradley infantry fighting vehicle.
• 🎯 The Bradley is highlighted as a workhorse due to its effective 25mm chain gun capable of destroying tanks and other vehicles, combined with superior protection and mobility compared to older models.

Russia's Stalled Land Campaign

• 🇷🇺 Russia is unlikely to win a land battle in Ukraine, as Ukrainian forces have effectively thwarted their advances.
• 💔 The conflict has resulted in significant Russian casualties, estimated at over a million, indicating a failure to achieve their objectives.

Air Defense Needs

• ✈️ Russia's primary weapon, its air power, needs to be countered by a layered air defense system.
• ⚠️ Current air defense strategies must address a spectrum of threats, from strategic ballistic missiles to tactical and subtactical drones, without overusing expensive systems like Patriots.

Theory of Victory

• 🤔 General Breedlove's theory of victory centers on convincing Vladimir Putin he cannot win the war, rather than solely focusing on military hardware or territorial gains.
• 💡 This requires the West, including the US President, to adopt a declaratory stance, loudly and clearly communicating that Russia will not win.
• 🛡️ This approach aims to present a 'hard belly' to Russia, forcing a reconsideration of their strategy, as opposed to the perceived 'soft underbelly' seen since 2008.

Western Leadership and Support

• 🗣️ A critical first step is for Western leaders to firmly tell Putin to stop and to publicly declare that Russia will not win.
• 🤝 This aligns with past assurances, such as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty and borders.
• 🌊 Beyond declaratory policy, Ukraine needs enhanced capabilities, including a western-style air force and better coastal defense to secure trade routes, while NATO itself may need to adopt some Ukrainian tactics.