G. Elliott Morris on Trump's LA Moves and Polling Backlash

Public Opinion on Federal Troop Deployment

• 🇺🇸 A Yuggov poll indicates that the average American disapproves of Donald Trump deploying the National Guard or Marines to Los Angeles for law enforcement related to protests.
• 📉 Support for sending the National Guard was lower by a seven-point margin, and even more opposed for sending the Marines, suggesting public aversion to military intervention in domestic affairs.

Trump's Political Strategy and Public Perception

• 🧠 Donald Trump is described as astute regarding public opinion, likely influenced by polling data and a perceived advantage on immigration.
• ⚠️ The strategy of deploying troops may be based on outdated data or a misreading of public sentiment, potentially backfiring politically.
• ⚖️ While protesters are unpopular, the public also opposes the use of federal troops, creating a paradoxical situation where Trump's actions might be overextending.

Historical Precedents and Political Playbooks

• 📈 In 2020, Trump's deployment of the National Guard during BLM protests was seen as detrimental to his support, despite a localized backlash to violence in Kenosha.
• 📊 Academic evidence suggests that the 2020 protests, on average, helped Democrats by increasing support for their party and decreasing support for Trump.
• 🔄 The current playbook of sending in the National Guard appears to be a repeated strategy, possibly driven by political ideology rather than public opinion.

Shifting Polling on Immigration and Economy

• 📉 Trump's initial advantage on immigration (10 percentage points) has dwindled to a three-point gap, and his economy approval is 14 points underwater, with inflation 20 points underwater.
• 🏠 Public backlash is evident regarding deportations, particularly when they extend beyond hardened criminals to individuals with community ties or those who are not convicted criminals.
• 💡 The focus on deporting individuals who are not violent criminals, such as those waiting for work outside Home Depot or children with cancer, squanders any mandate and generates negative sentiment.

Government Overreach and Political Backlash

• ⚖️ Instances of government overreach, such as illegal deportations or federalizing the National Guard, result in significant backlash for Donald Trump, as reflected in polling data.
• 🚫 The public desires orderly deportation of criminals and a decrease in crime, but not the broad use of force or perceived martial law tactics.
• 📢 Democrats may find political advantage by highlighting the unpopular aspects of Trump's immigration agenda, such as excessive deportations, while maintaining a stance on law and order.