G. Elliott Morris on Special Elections, Trump's Approval, and the Economy

Special Election Trends and Democratic Overperformance

• 📊 Special elections in Wisconsin and Florida show significant Democratic overperformance, with shifts of 16 and 22 percentage points in Florida congressional districts.
• 📈 The Wisconsin Supreme Court race saw an 11-point shift, indicating a broader trend of Democrats doing better than expected in recent elections.
• 🗳️ These trends suggest a combination of Republican voters tuning out and independents and Democrats becoming more supportive of left-leaning candidates.

Parallels to 2018 Midterms

• 🚀 Special election shifts are averaging around 11 points, similar to the 10-point shift observed leading up to the 2018 midterms.
• ⚠️ A key difference is the increased educational polarization in the electorate, with educated voters leaning Democratic and less educated voters leaning Republican.
• 📉 This creates a "dual electorate" where turnout differs significantly between presidential years and off-year elections, potentially benefiting Democrats in low-turnout midterms.

Elon Musk's Political Liability

• 📉 Elon Musk's involvement in Republican efforts, particularly in Wisconsin, appears to be a growing liability.
• ⚠️ Polling data suggests Musk is significantly less popular than Donald Trump, with an approval rating around -12 to -13 percentage points.
• 🚫 Republicans in competitive races are reportedly concerned about Musk's "toxic" effect on their campaigns.

"Signal Gate" and Public Opinion

• 🚨 A Yuggov poll indicates 53% of Americans consider "Signal Gate" (sharing classified war plans over Signal with a journalist) very serious, with 74% viewing it as serious or somewhat serious.
• ⚖️ This is perceived as more serious than Hillary Clinton's email server scandal in 2015, with 48% believing Signal Gate violated the law compared to 41% for Clinton.
• 💡 The irony is noted that the Republican party's prior focus on unsecured servers may have primed the public to view Signal Gate more severely.

Economic Issues and Democratic Strategy

• 📈 The economy remains a potent issue, with Trump now having a 10-point deficit on handling the economy, worse than his overall approval rating.
• 🏛️ Midterm elections are largely driven by backlash against the incumbent president's party, and Democrats are expected to take back the House.
• 🎯 Democrats should focus on economic issues and potential cuts to programs like Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security to capitalize on voter sentiment.