Former US Diplomat Daniel Fried on Trump's Leverage Against Putin and Ukraine's Future

Trump's Stance on Putin and Ukraine

• 💡 Former US diplomat Daniel Fried believes Donald Trump has the leverage to show Vladimir Putin that time is not on his side.
• 🎯 Trump has expressed a desire to broker a peace deal within a week, condemning missile firings during peace talks.
• ⚠️ Trump suggested that Ukraine might have to accept the loss of Crimea, attributing its annexation to the Obama administration.

Critiques of Trump's Approach

• 📌 Fried criticizes Trump for not doing enough to pressure Putin, suggesting that talk of recognizing Russian annexation of Crimea makes the US appear weak.
• 💰 The diplomat points out that Russia's economy is hurting, and the US has leverage through measures like tariffs that lower oil prices, Russia's main export.
• 🗣️ Fried notes an "inexplicable and dangerous fascination with Putin" in some circles around Trump, drawing parallels to past admiration for authoritarian figures.

Europe's Role and Potential US Withdrawal

• 🇪🇺 If Trump were to withdraw support for Ukraine, Europe would need to significantly increase its own efforts to ensure security and support Ukraine.
• 🇺🇸 Despite pushback against Trump's potential concessions, Fried advises not to count the US out entirely, acknowledging internal debate within the administration.
• 🤝 Fried suggests that a decent minerals deal for Ukraine, if terms are reasonable and beneficial to Ukraine, could be a positive development, but notes Trump's policy inconsistency offers both hope and uncertainty.