Former US Ambassador on Putin's War Aims and US Negotiation Strategy

Putin's Objectives in Ukraine

• 🎯 Putin's primary goal is to gain political control over Ukraine, not just occupy territory.
• ⚡ He wants the war to continue and aims for the United States to cease supplying arms to Ukraine.
• 💰 Putin also desires the lifting of sanctions imposed on Russia.

Obstacles to a Ceasefire

• ⚠️ The biggest obstacle to a lasting ceasefire is that Putin does not want one.
• 🚫 Moscow has a history of rejecting ceasefire proposals, including those made in Jeddah and regarding energy installations and the Black Sea.
• 🤝 While President Trump perceives an enthusiasm for a deal from both sides, Ambassador Herbst questions if this is true, suggesting Zelenskyy is the one genuinely seeking a resolution.

US Negotiation and Aid Strategy

• 🔑 The only way to compel Putin to negotiate seriously is by making the war painful for him to continue.
• 🇺🇸 If the US walks away from negotiations but continues to supply arms (even if Ukraine has to pay), Putin faces a problem.
• 📉 However, if the US withdraws entirely from any role in the war, Putin achieves his objective of Americans being out, allowing him to continue his aggression.
• 🛡️ Creating peace requires being strong with the aggressor, not coddling them.

International Mediation and US Role

• 🌍 The Russians do not want a mediator, but they desire better relations with the US due to the impact of American arms and sanctions.
• 🗣️ While Putin will talk to other leaders (like Merkel or Macron), he has not taken steps toward peace because his aim is political control of Ukraine.
• 🇭🇺 Only Hungary's Orban is seen as willing to accept terms that might involve Ukraine's surrender, a stance not expected from the current US administration.
• ⚠️ A US withdrawal from the war entirely could lead to Putin taking Ukraine, representing a significant defeat for American diplomacy.