Former Ukrainian FM Dmytro Kuleba on Russia's Diplomacy and Europe's Defense

Phony Diplomacy and Putin's Strategy

• 🎭 The recent diplomatic maneuvers involving Russia are described as "phony diplomacy," with a delegation sent to Istanbul mirroring one from three years ago that failed to deliver.
• ⏳ Putin is perceived as having a long-term strategy, believing he can eventually subjugate Ukraine, unbound by electoral cycles like European leaders.
• 💰 Kuleba emphasizes that Putin's war machine is fueled by oil revenues, suggesting that targeting these revenues is a key instrument to influence his decisions.

The Role of a New US Administration

• 🇺🇸 A new American administration, particularly one led by Donald Trump, could introduce new dynamics, but the approach must balance "sticks and carrots."
• ⚖️ Current diplomacy is criticized for giving all the "sticks" to Ukraine and all the "carrots" to Russia, which is fundamentally ineffective.
• 📉 Putin's assessment is that the West has faltered and the US has walked away, creating an opportunity for Russia when Ukraine weakens.

Europe's Defense and Military Support

• 🇪🇺 Europe has the infrastructure, money, and potential to seriously address its own defense, which would also benefit Ukraine.
• 🧮 Europeans need to conduct a simple math exercise: compare Ukraine's monthly weapons expenditure with Europe's current deliveries and the gap left by absent American aid.
• ⚠️ A gap between what Ukraine needs and what it has will lead to a changing situation on the front lines.

Vatican's Peace Mediation Efforts

• 🕊️ The Vatican, through Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Pope Leo XIV, has offered neutral territory for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
• 🙏 The Holy See is grateful for the willingness of countries to be involved and has a history of mediating peace and facilitating prisoner exchanges.
• 🤝 While Russia has stated it will consider the Vatican's offer, it depends on the details and perceived goodwill from the Ukrainian side.