Former UK Ambassador on Putin, Ukraine War, and Global Instability

A World in Turmoil

• 🌍 The world is currently experiencing an era of unprecedented complexity and volatility, marked by major war in Europe, fundamental structural changes in global power, and systemic risks.
• 💡 Diplomacy is more crucial than ever but also more difficult, requiring effective and creative engagement with adversaries.
• ⚠️ The current global landscape is described using the VUCA acronym: volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous.

Understanding Vladimir Putin and Russia

• 🧠 Vladimir Putin's worldview is characterized by an imperial view of Russia as a great power, seeing former Soviet states, particularly Ukraine, as indistinguishable from Russia.
• 🗣️ Putin's intentions and views have been consistently articulated, but the West has been slow to acknowledge or act upon them.
• 🚫 A deal or ceasefire is impossible while Putin remains in power, as his goals of asserting a sphere of influence and empire cannot be reconciled with Western interests.

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict

• ⚡ The Maidan revolution in 2013 and Ukraine's deepening relationship with the EU were triggers for Russian intervention, not NATO membership.
• 🛑 The conflict is fundamentally about Putin's view of Russia's place in the world and his belief that Ukraine is a Western "anti-Russian project."
• 🔑 A key turning point was the Bucharest NATO summit in 2008, which signaled to Putin that Ukraine and Georgia would not become NATO members, creating an opportunity for him.

Lessons from Afghanistan and Diplomacy

• 📉 The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 demonstrated a lack of Western will to see through long-term commitments, potentially emboldening adversaries like Putin.
• ✈️ The withdrawal highlighted strategic flaws and execution failures, leading to a humiliation for the West and raising questions about its capabilities.
• 🤝 Ambassadors play a vital role in passing unfiltered messages and gaining deep knowledge and contacts to read an opponent's next moves, essential for avoiding flying blind.

Advice for UK Foreign Policy

• 🛡️ A clear-eyed Russia policy is essential, focusing on deterring Putin and preventing his return to conflict in Ukraine by arming Ukrainians effectively.
• 🇪🇺 European powers must be prepared to act without American support if necessary, especially concerning European security, which is a function of geography.
• ⚖️ The choice is between accommodation with Putin's Russia or an enormous defense budget to counter it.