Former Swedish PM Carl Bildt on Trump, Putin, and Ukraine's Future

European Unity and Trump's Stance

• 🇪🇺 European leaders have sent a strong, coherent, and clear message to President Trump regarding Ukraine.
• ❓ Whether this message will be understood by President Trump remains an open question, with clarity expected by Friday.
• 🇺🇦 The reality that any territorial carve-up of Ukraine cannot be implemented without Ukrainian consent is beginning to sink in, even in the White House.

Trump's Policy on Russia and Ukraine

• 🤔 It remains to be seen if President Trump is prepared to stand up to President Putin, but he understands that a deal cannot be done by ignoring Europeans.
• 💡 European support for Ukraine makes it difficult for Trump and Putin to impose a deal against European and Ukrainian will.
• ⚠️ While Trump wants to stop the killing and achieve a ceasefire, his support for Ukraine has been reluctant, and actions against Russia have been limited.

Sanctions and Military Support

• 📉 Threats of severe consequences and tough sanctions on Russia have been made before but often deflected by Putin.
• 🇺🇸 Cutting back military support to Ukraine is seen as a significant move, and a return to this support would send a stronger message to Putin than tariffs or secondary sanctions.
• 🤝 There is agreement across the Atlantic on the fundamental short-term issue of wanting to stop the killing and achieve a ceasefire.

The West Bank Model and Peace Prospects

• 🚫 The Israeli model of occupation in the West Bank is not considered a viable model for the West or for Russia to follow in Ukraine.
• ⚠️ The risk of President Putin stringing President Trump along without engaging in a genuine peace process is very real.
• 🕊️ A ceasefire is seen as a fragile possibility, but achieving lasting peace is a much more complex and distant prospect, unlikely before the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded.

Coalition of the Willing and Security Guarantees

• 🛡️ A coalition of the willing is crucial for supporting and increasing Ukraine's defensive capabilities if a ceasefire is achieved.
• 💰 Support will likely be financial, technological, and through training, rather than deploying Western troops.
• 📈 Putin is expected to actively try to prevent such support from happening.