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Forget The AI Bubble - Goldman Sachs Just Revealed The 3 "Hidden" AI Winners For 2026 – Are You In?

[HPP] David SolomonFebruary 17, 20269 min
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The AI Mega-Cycle Outlook

  • 💡 The macroeconomic setup is strong, driven by significant fiscal stimulus, substantial capital investment in AI technology, and a constructive deregulatory swing in the US.
  • 📈 Despite market wobbles and a sell-off in software stocks, Goldman Sachs' Q4 2025 13F filing indicates institutional investors are rotating, not fleeing, predicting a "Mega-Cycle."
  • 💰 Hyperscalers like Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle have committed an astounding $660–$700 billion to AI infrastructure for 2026, nearly doubling investment in 12 months.

Goldman Sachs' Investment Strategy

  • 🎯 Goldman's portfolio reflects a deliberate rebalancing, trimming positions in former darlings like Micron and Nvidia to focus on the next phase of AI.
  • 🔑 Their strategy targets productivity beneficiaries and "hardware picks and shovels" companies that will thrive as the AI pendulum swings towards execution.

Lamb Research: Semiconductor Foundation

  • 🛠️ Lamb Research (LRCX) is redefining semiconductor manufacturing, holding a near-monopoly in etch and deposition, critical steps for next-generation AI chips.
  • 🚀 The company is experiencing a capacity story, with relentless demand for AI-driven chips leading to a shortage of clean room space.
  • 📊 Lamb reported $5.34 billion in revenue for Q2 FY2026, marking its 10th consecutive quarter of growth, and is on track to hit 2028 targets by year-end.
  • ✅ Goldman Sachs significantly increased its position in Lamb Research, adding over 929,000 shares in Q4, recognizing its role in building AI infrastructure.

Apple's Capital-Light AI Arbitrage

  • 📱 Apple (AAPL) is executing a brilliant capital-light AI arbitrage strategy, leveraging its 2.5 billion active devices and offloading heavy compute costs to partners like Google.
  • 📈 Apple's Q1 FY2026 earnings showed all-time high revenue of $143.8 billion, driven by a 23% jump in iPhone sales and a 38% surge in Greater China.
  • 🍎 The company benefits from a "functional obsolescence thesis", where users upgrade because legacy silicon cannot run the new Apple Intelligence OS layer.
  • 💰 Goldman Sachs maintained a massive high-conviction bet on Apple, increasing exposure by 2.6% and viewing the iPhone 17 as the start of a replacement super cycle, supported by strong gross and services margins.

Alphabet: Agentic Infrastructure

  • 🔍 Alphabet (GOOG) is focused on agentic infrastructure, with search evolving into a transactional utility and Gemini AI reaching 750 million active users.
  • ☁️ Google Cloud is the fastest-growing hyperscaler, posting 48% year-over-year revenue growth and boasting a massive $240 billion backlog.
  • 💡 Alphabet leverages proprietary Ironwood TPUs for vertical integration, reducing Gemini's serving costs by 78% and creating a deflationary unit cost advantage.
  • 🤝 The Apple Gemini partnership is a key catalyst for 2026, locking in the highest-value consumer ecosystem and insulating Google from on-device AI risks.

Industrialization of AI

  • 🔥 Goldman Sachs is betting on the industrialization of AI, not a bubble, by rotating into precision manufacturing, capital efficiency, and agentic infrastructure.
  • 🚀 The current market volatility is seen as a shaking out of weak hands before the next leg of the super cycle begins.
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What’s Discussed

AI Mega-CycleGoldman Sachs Investment StrategyAI InfrastructureSemiconductor ManufacturingAI ChipsLamb ResearchApple IntelligenceApple's AI StrategyAlphabet (Google)Google CloudGemini AIHyperscalersDeregulatory SwingFiscal Stimulus13F Filings
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