Ford's EV Business Model: No Profits Forecast Until 2029

Ford's Financial Performance

• 📊 Ford reported $187 billion in revenue in 2025, a 1% growth, but an overall loss of $8.2 billion for the full year.
• 📉 The Q4 2025 loss was a staggering $11.1 billion, indicating significant financial challenges.

Model E Division Losses

• 💸 Ford's Model E (EV division) lost $4.5 billion in 2025, despite contributing only 3.6% of overall revenue.
• 📈 Although Model E saw 73% revenue growth and a 9.4% reduction in losses, it is not projected to be profitable until 2029.
• 🚗 The F-150 Lightning was discontinued mid-2025 due to excessive losses, impacting their EV lineup.

Missed EV Targets and Strategy Shifts

• 🎯 CEO Jim Farley's ambitious targets, like topping Tesla in EV sales and producing 2 million EVs annually by 2026, have been consistently missed.
• 🔄 Ford has revised its EV strategy annually since 2023, slowing its aggressive rollout and pushing back production goals.
• 💬 The speaker suggests the 2029 profitability forecast is a "keep your job statement" for the CEO.

External Factors and Industry Context

• ⚠️ The sudden halt of the US IRA subsidy ($7,500 per EV) under the Trump administration severely impacted EV sales, a predictable event Ford seemingly failed to anticipate.
• 🚗 Other major automakers like General Motors and Stellantis are also reporting massive EV-related losses, indicating a broader industry struggle.

Future Outlook for Ford

• 🔮 The speaker predicts Ford will abandon its EV manufacturing efforts and refocus on ICE vehicles, hybrids, and the profitable Ford Pro commercial division.
• 📉 Despite the negative financial news, Ford's share price remains largely unaffected, suggesting these losses were anticipated by the market.