Fmr. Acting Labor Secretary on Firing BLS Head: Integrity of Statistical System at Risk

Firing of BLS Commissioner

• 🎯 President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics following a worse-than-expected jobs report and significant revisions.
• ⚠️ Seth Harris, former Acting Labor Secretary, views this as a very big deal that puts the integrity of the U.S. statistical system at risk.
• 💡 Mick Mulvaney, former acting White House chief of staff, acknowledges the political aspect but argues for accountability when data is perceived as wrong.

Integrity of Economic Data

• 📊 The American public understands the economy through their daily experiences, not just official numbers.
• 📉 Harris argues that firing the BLS commissioner does not solve economic problems like fewer jobs, rising prices, or uncertainty due to tariff strategies.
• ✈️ He emphasizes that an unreliable statistical system means flying blind for economic decision-making, which is detrimental to the economy.

Data Revisions and Reliability

• 🧐 Mulvaney agrees that relying on bad data can lead to significant financial losses, citing Federal Reserve policy based on BLS figures.
• 📉 He points to the large downward revision of job numbers as evidence that the data may not have been reliable, questioning whether people would have trusted it going forward.
• ⚠️ Both guests agree that if the data cannot be relied upon, it leads to significant problems.

Improving Data Collection and Quality

• 🐌 Mulvaney suggests that the BLS system may need drastic changes, potentially involving outdated methods like fax and mail for data collection.
• 📈 He argues that the magnitude of recent revisions is not justified by economic turns alone, citing larger economic swings in the past with smaller revisions.
• 🗣️ Harris counters that revisions are a normal part of the statistical process, especially during economic turns, and that the current revisions are a small percentage of the total workforce.

Accountability and Future Leadership

• 🧑‍💼 Harris advocates for a non-political statistical expert, like the recently fired BLS commissioner Dr. Erica McInter, who had bipartisan confirmation.
• 🤝 Mulvaney suggests hiring someone respected by both sides of the aisle, acknowledging the difficulty in finding such a person who would take the job.
• ❓ The discussion touches on the possibility of hiring a Democrat to regain credibility, with Harris hoping for correct data regardless of political affiliation.