Florida Tropical Weather Update: July 13, 2025

Tropical Season Outlook

• 🗓️ The tropical season is still early, with significant activity typically ramping up in August, September, and the first half of October.
• 📊 Climatologically, only 8% of named storms occur in July, with 6% in June, indicating a typically quieter period.

Potential Development in the Gulf

• ⚠️ An area of disturbed weather, currently an upper low, is expected to move across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
• 📈 This system has a 20% chance of tropical development over the next seven days, with potential transformation from an upper low to a surface low.
• ⏳ If development occurs, it is likely to be slow, taking several days and potentially forming mid to late week.

Rainfall Forecast for Florida

• 🌧️ Regardless of tropical development, the upper low will bring rounds of heavy rain to Florida.
• 🌊 Excessive rainfall is expected for much of the state, particularly from Levy County southward on Monday and Tampa southward on Tuesday.
• 📊 The entire state could receive three to six inches of rain within the next two to three days.

Monitoring Tropical Activity

• 🔍 The hurricane center is closely monitoring the system as it moves westward into the Gulf.
• Gulf of Mexico systems in July always warrant attention, even if computer models do not strongly indicate development.