Fed Chair Powell on Labor Market Cooling and Interest Rate Decisions

Labor Market Cooling

• 💡 The labor market has continued its gradual cooling, perhaps slightly more gradually than initially anticipated.
• 📉 Unemployment has risen by 0.3% from June through September, with payroll job growth averaging 40,000 per month since April, adjusted downwards by an estimated 60,000.
• 📊 Surveys from both households and businesses indicate a decline in the demand for workers.

Inflation Trends

• ⚠️ Services inflation is decreasing, but this is offset by increases in goods inflation, particularly in sectors affected by tariffs.
• 📈 It is suggested that tariffs are a significant contributor to excess inflation, accounting for more than half of the current goods inflation.
• 🚫 The current economic conditions do not suggest a