Farmer Blake Hurst on Trade War Uncertainty and Rising Costs

Impact of Tariffs on Farmers

• 🚜 Blake Hurst, a farmer from Missouri, explains how tariffs are negatively impacting farmers.
• 💡 Tariffs on imported goods like potash fertilizer from Canada and greenhouse supplies from China are increasing operating costs.
• ⚠️ Farmers face terrible uncertainty regarding future costs, as they don't always know which imported goods will be affected by new tariffs.

Falling Crop Prices and Rising Costs

• 📉 Prices for crops like corn and soybeans have dropped significantly, by about 40% since 2022.
• 📈 Simultaneously, operating costs for fuel, fertilizer, and seed have increased substantially.
• 💰 Loan rates have also climbed to as high as 8%, creating a squeeze of lower revenue and higher costs for farmers.

Comparison to Previous Trade Wars

• 💥 This trade war is considered much worse than the one in 2018 because tariffs are now affecting Canada, Mexico, the EU, and Japan, impacting all major customers.
• 🚫 The situation is compared to a total embargo on exports, which could take a long time to recover from unless tariffs are removed.

Business Decisions Amidst Uncertainty

• 🛠️ Farmers are postponing maintenance on equipment, such as truck tires, and delaying any new purchases of farm machinery.
• 🚜 Even essential machinery like a 14-year-old combine cannot be replaced due to increased costs, partly because parts are also affected by tariffs.

Farm Business Viability

• ⚠️ There is concern that farms, particularly smaller ones, might go out of business due to the profit squeeze.
• 📊 However, the impact is expected to be across all farm sizes, as larger farms often carry more debt and can also be overextended.