Fact-Checking 1.6 Million Undocumented Immigrants Leaving the U.S.

Claim of 1.6 Million Departures

• 📌 Homeland Security Secretary Christine Nome claimed that 1.6 million immigrants without legal status have left the U.S. since January.
• ⚠️ This claim was partly attributed to an administration ad campaign warning undocumented immigrants about arrest or deportation.

Data Sources and Methodologies

• 🔍 CBS News confirmed data journalist Julia Ingram examined the data behind this claim.
• 📊 Government data obtained by CBS News showed 163,000 deportations or self-departures in the first six months of the Trump administration.
• 🗣️ A DHS spokesperson stated the 1.6 million figure came from the department's data, but a press release pointed to a Center for Immigration Studies report.
• 🔬 This report analyzed the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS) to reach the 1.6 million figure.

Expert Analysis and Limitations

• 💡 Researchers who study population trends stated it is too soon to determine the accuracy of the 1.6 million figure.
• 📊 Typically, researchers use the American Community Survey (ACS), which surveys 3.5 million households, a much larger sample than the CPS's 60,000 households.
• ⚠️ The smaller sample size of the CPS leads to wider margins of error when focusing on specific populations like immigrants.
• 😟 Immigrants may also be hesitant to respond to surveys due to the current immigration crackdown, potentially skewing results.

Current Population Trends

• 📈 For a more accurate estimate, researchers suggest waiting for data from the American Community Survey.
• 📊 The latest ACS figures from 2023 indicate the total unauthorized immigrant population grew to a record 14 million.
• ⏳ Researchers emphasize the need for more robust survey data to understand population changes since 2023.