Expert Analysis: Likelihood of a Limited Ceasefire Between Russia and Ukraine

Limited Ceasefire on Energy Assets

• 💡 A limited ceasefire on energy assets is likely to take place, as both Ukraine and Russia desire it.
• 🇺🇦 Ukraine has inflicted considerable pain on Russia's refining sector through drone capabilities, motivating this agreement.
• 🗓️ The terms, including a specific list of targets, are expected to be negotiated within a week or two, potentially involving a delegation in Riyadh.

Broader Ceasefire Prospects

• 🎯 A temporary, limited ceasefire could potentially lead to a more comprehensive ceasefire.
• 🤝 Discussions between the US and Russia involve three key areas: normalization of relations, European security (reducing US presence), and Ukraine.
• 🚀 Addressing the first two buckets may shift Putin's reaction function towards a more durable ceasefire.

Long-Term Conflict Outlook

• ⏳ The war is expected to continue for a very long time in some form, potentially for the remainder of Putin's life.
• 🗺️ Putin views eastern Ukraine as his, and is unlikely to leave the issue to future generations.
• 📉 The outlook for Ukrainians and global investors is described as dark, with potential for continued Russian violations and destabilization efforts.

Future Conflict Dynamics

• cyber warfare, economic interference, or political interference are likely to continue even if bombing ceases.
• ⛰️ The conflict model is compared to Kashmir, characterized by on-and-off unstable ceasefires with periodic outbursts of violence, rather than a stable armistice like Korea.
• ⚠️ This suggests a bloody future and a short-term uptick in Ukraine's fortunes, but not a durable one.