Ex-Trump Official on Firing of Labor Statistics Head and Data Integrity

Reaction to Commissioner's Firing

• 💡 Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, was fired after a disappointing jobs report showing only 73,000 jobs added in July, with sharp downward revisions for May and June.
• 🎯 President Trump dismissed the data as "rigged" and "manipulated for political purposes."
• 🔑 William Beach, former Trump-appointed Commissioner of Labor Statistics, calls the allegation of the commissioner influencing data "very implausible."

How BLS Data is Calculated

• 🧠 The Commissioner of Labor Statistics has no access to the raw data, no involvement in the summation of data from regional offices, and no possibility of influencing the calculations.
• 📊 Numbers are revealed at 8:30 AM ET on Friday mornings, after being locked into data centers at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday.
• ⚠️ The hardheaded and loyal Americans at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would never yield to political pressure to alter data.

Impact of Allegations on Trust

• 📈 The BLS is a highly trusted worldwide organization, with international bankers relying on its reports for economic decisions.
• 📉 Allegations of the data being politically rigged or incorrect sew aspersions and can take time to correct.
• ⚠️ Beach suggests President Trump may have received bad advice regarding the BLS system.

Understanding Data Revisions

• 🔍 Large downward revisions in May and June jobs numbers (over 250,000 total) were due to more information becoming available from businesses that responded late.
• 📊 This additional information, particularly from state and local education units, differed from the initial data points, necessitating revisions.
• ⚠️ While large revisions are not common, they occurred during COVID-19 and are a result of incorporating more complete data, not manipulation.

Future of BLS Leadership

• 🇺🇸 A new commissioner needs to be a highly respected individual with impeccable credentials to restore the BLS's status as a "gold standard" organization.
• 🗣️ This individual may have to deliver unfavorable news to the President, potentially leading to a perception of "rigged" versus "real" numbers.
• ⚖️ The Senate, Wall Street, and investors will scrutinize any nominee, ensuring the appointment is not a parochial operation but one that upholds U.S. data integrity.
• 🤝 A bipartisan consensus on the importance of the BLS position is crucial for a credible appointment.