Ethiopia: Fano Strength, Shimelis Abdisa's Military Buildup, and Regional Conflict Dynamics

Amhara Region Political Landscape

• 💡 The Prosperity Party cannot sustain military governance in the Amhara region, which is vast and populous (over 30 million people across 14 zones, 120+ districts, and 4000+ kebeles).
• 📌 The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) cannot indefinitely manage police and security duties across all districts and kebeles, as evidenced by its withdrawal from many areas in South Gondar.
• 🔑 A political solution is deemed essential for lasting peace in the Amhara region and Ethiopia, rather than continued military administration.

Fano's Growing Influence

• 🚀 Fano is significantly strengthening its organization, acquiring heavy weaponry, and is projected to obtain drones, similar to Sudan's RSF.
• 💪 Fano is identified as the sole guarantor of the Amhara people's political, economic, and social interests, having a strong social base unlike other Amhara-named organizations.
• 📈 The movement is expected to intensify until a political environment that secures Amhara's interests is established, rather than weakening.

Oromia's Force Mobilization

• 🚨 Shimelis Abdisa, President of the Oromia Regional State, is reportedly organizing a new military force by recalling former police, special forces, VIP protection units, and ex-ENDF members.
• 🎯 This recruitment drive, which required registration within a week, is seen as a strategic preparation by the Oromia branch of the Prosperity Party.
• 💬 Shimelis Abdisa's past statements about celebrating Erecha at the Red Sea are highlighted as appealing to former Ethiopian military personnel.

Regional Conflict & Peace Talks

• ⚠️ There are strong indications of impending conflicts in the northern regions, with the ENDF potentially redeploying for national defense, leaving Fano as the de facto administrator of the Amhara region.
• ⚔️ Tigray forces are also reportedly preparing for war, with leaders deployed to districts, logistics centers being established, youth recruitment quotas, and government employees mandated to donate 50% of their salaries.
• 🤝 Jawar Mohammed criticized the Pretoria Agreement for excluding Eritrean forces, arguing that all parties involved in the conflict must participate in peace talks for a stable resolution.

Eritrean Role and Criticisms

• 🔍 Jawar Mohammed asserts that Abiy Ahmed invited Eritrean forces into Ethiopia, rather than them violating the border, and views Eritrea (Shabia) as a legitimate party in any conflict with the Prosperity Party.
• 🛑 He questioned the Ethiopian government's recent demand for Eritrean troops to withdraw, asking for concrete evidence of border incursions before condemning Eritrea.
• 🚩 Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea is believed to be wary of Ethiopia's military buildup and is seen as making psychological preparations for a potential conflict, interpreting the exclusion from peace talks as a threat.