Eric Pachman on Healthcare Job Growth Risks and International Investing

Healthcare Job Growth Concerns

• 💡 Healthcare and social assistance accounted for 63% of all job growth over the last two years, despite representing only 17% of the workforce.
• ⚠️ Eric Pachman expresses concern, stating he has "never seen a setup this negative for healthcare job growth."
• 📉 Past engines of job growth like Medicaid and Medicare expansion are at risk due to the "one big beautiful bill."
• 🔬 Additional risks include NIH funding cuts and most favored nation drug pricing reform, creating a "perfect storm" for the healthcare sector.

Structural Weakening of Job Market

• 📊 While the private job ads have appeared strong on the surface, digging into BLS data reveals a concerning trend.
• 📉 The reliance on healthcare for job growth suggests a structural underpinning of job growth is weakening.
• ⚠️ It is difficult to see how healthcare jobs can continue to carry the entire economy under these conditions.

International Investing Strategy

• 🌍 To sidestep the risks in the U.S. healthcare sector, investing in international markets is presented as a viable strategy.
• 🎯 International risks are described as highly idiosyncratic and primarily related to the U.S. situation.
• 📈 Tariffs are noted as potentially helping high-quality non-U.S. companies by reducing competition from U.S. multinationals.
• 💰 Additional tailwinds include potential dollar weakness and significant valuation discounts in international markets, making it a "value play."
• 🚀 Bancreek Capital Advisors has launched an international ETF, BCIL, to capitalize on these opportunities.