Enabling Ukraine to Strike Deep Inside Russia: A Strategic Analysis

Putin's Unwavering Stance

• 💡 Putin's implacability is highlighted, noting his apparent disregard for Russian casualties or economic damage, stemming from his belief that he cannot alter course.
• 🎯 The strategy proposed is to enable Ukraine to fight by allowing it to strike deep inside Russia, rather than engaging directly.

US Policy and Trump's Role

• 🇺🇸 The US approach to Ukraine is described as half-hearted, weak, and confused, contrasting sharply with the careful diplomacy seen in potential Israel-Hamas peace talks.
• 🗣️ Donald Trump's position on Ukraine, promising quick peace but delivering no action, is deemed baffling and inactive.
• 🇪🇺 Europe is urged to step up and play its part, especially if the United States is unwilling to lead.

Ukraine's Deep Strike Campaign

• ⚡ Ukraine's sustained long-range air campaign against Russian oil refineries is noted, impacting gas prices and bringing the war home to Russian citizens.
• 📉 While these strikes have an impact, they are unlikely to dissuade Putin or cause a collapse of the Russian economy on their own, due to Russia's ability to manage deficits, secure arms from North Korea, and use shadow fleets for oil.

Frozen Russian Assets and Financial Support

• 💰 The prolonged discussion around releasing frozen Russian assets (200 billion euros) for reparations and loans to Ukraine is seen as overdue.
• 🏦 Using these assets for loans is suggested as a way to provide Ukraine with necessary funds (estimated at 40-50 billion a year) without constant appeals to individual nations.

Shifting European Leadership

• 🇩🇪 Germany, under Chancellor Mertz, is showing increased leadership through rearmament and financial support, a significant shift from its previous stance.
• 🤝 There is a general willingness within European coalitions to provide Ukraine with weapons, manufacturing deals, training, and diplomatic support.

The Goal: Victory or Stalemate?

• 🇷🇺 Despite significant Russian casualties, Russia still occupies only 20% of Ukraine, indicating it is not winning.
• ❓ A clear objective for the war is needed; an open-ended conflict causing more casualties without resolution is not in the interest of Ukraine, Russia, or Europe.
• ⏳ For the next year, the strategy appears to be Ukraine hanging on, with the hope that circumstances might shift, as they did in WWII.

Putin's Motivations and Future

• 🧠 Putin's motivations are linked to resentment over Russia's post-Cold War position, a sense of entitlement, and a desire for historical greatness.
• 🔒 His constitutional changes suggest a plan to remain president for life, leading to a 'cult of personality' and increasing the chances of future bloodshed upon his death.
• 🛡️ Maintaining security, defenses, and deterrence against Russia is crucial for at least a generation, given Putin's current trajectory and the unlikelihood of a swift resolution.