Elizabeth Economy on Trump's Diplomacy with China and Japan Amidst Taiwan Tensions

Xi Jinping's Military Reforms and Taiwan Threat

• 🇨🇳 Xi Jinping has significantly reorganized and modernized China's military over the past 13 years, modeling it on U.S. joint structures and advancing hardware capabilities.
• ⚠️ Despite these reforms, recent purges of senior military leadership create uncertainty about the military's readiness for action.
• 📈 Military activity around Taiwan, including air flights and strait crossings, has increased, with Beijing viewing Taiwan as part of the postwar international order.
• 🇯🇵 Japan's Prime Minister suggested potential military action if China attacked Taiwan, leading to swift Chinese retaliation including boycotts.
• 🎯 Xi Jinping has set a marker for 2027 for the Chinese military to be prepared for action regarding Taiwan, though this does not guarantee an invasion by that date.
• 🗣️ A retired Chinese foreign policy official indicated that China is not prepared to wait 200 years and is ready to take military action.

China's Perception of President Trump

• ❓ China perceives President Trump as unpredictable but also sees openings, evidenced by Xi Jinping initiating a call to discuss Taiwan.
• 🤝 Xi Jinping's call aimed to signal Taiwan's status as part of China and probe Trump's willingness to engage on the issue, potentially before their April meeting.
• 💼 The perception in China is that Trump is a dealmaker willing to trade and put issues on the table.

U.S. Commitment to Taiwan and Indo-Pacific Allies

• 🇺🇸 There are concerns about President Trump's commitment to Taiwan, as he has not explicitly called Taiwan a valuable partner.
• 🤝 U.S. Secretaries Rubio and Hastert have shown strong support for Taiwan and commitment to Indo-Pacific allies and a continued U.S. presence.
• ⚖️ The administration may face a fracturing on the Taiwan-China issue, similar to observed divisions on the Russia issue.

China's Long-Term Strategic Vision

• ⏳ China operates with a long-term vision and strategy, setting targets for 2030, 2035, and 2049, particularly in achieving global technology dominance.
• 🌍 This long-term approach extends to various domains including the Arctic, space, deep seabed mining, and the global economy.
• 🚀 Xi Jinping is playing the long game and does not appear to be exiting the political scene soon, with expectations of at least another five-year term starting in 2027.