Elizabeth Economy on China's Military, Taiwan Threat, and US-China Relations

Xi Jinping's Military Reforms and Purges

• 🇨🇳 Xi Jinping has significantly reorganized and advanced China's military capabilities over the past 13 years, modeling it partly on the US joint structure.
• ⚠️ However, recent purges of senior military leadership raise questions about the military's readiness for action.

Taiwan Under Threat

• 🚨 Taiwan is under threat, with increased rhetoric and military activity from Beijing, including air flights and crossings of the Taiwan Strait median line.
• 🇯🇵 Japan's Prime Minister stated that military action against Taiwan could force Japan to respond militarily, leading to Chinese sanctions.
• 🎯 Xi Jinping has set a marker for 2027 for the Chinese military to be prepared for action, though this doesn't guarantee an invasion that year.
• ⏳ A retired Chinese foreign policy official indicated that China is not prepared to wait centuries and is ready to take military action.

US-China Relations and Trump's Approach

• 🇺🇸 China perceives President Trump as unpredictable but sees potential openings, with Xi Jinping initiating calls to probe Trump's willingness to engage on Taiwan.
• 🤝 China views Trump as a dealmaker willing to trade, and they are assessing his potential approach to Taiwan.
• ❓ There is concern about Trump's commitment to Taiwan, as he has not explicitly stated its value as a partner and has been critical at times.
• ⚖️ The Trump administration has shown potential for fracturing on key issues, similar to the Russia situation, which could extend to Taiwan.

China's Long-Term Strategy

• ⏳ China is playing the long game, investing in resources and capabilities to achieve global dominance by 2035-2049, with markers set for 5, 10, and 15 years out.
• 🚀 This long-term vision encompasses areas like global technology dominance, the Arctic, space, and de-dollarizing the global economy.
• 👑 Xi Jinping is expected to remain in power for at least another five-year term starting in 2027 and likely influence future leadership.

Public Sentiment and Global Posture

• 🇨🇳 Opinions within China vary, with some desiring more political and economic openness to the West, while others are comfortable with China's robust global posture and "wolf warrior diplomacy."
• 🌍 Xi Jinping's approach favors a more activist, expansionist, and ambitious China that asserts its interests and values.

Sino-Japanese Tensions and US Commitment

• 🗾 Japan and China are close trading partners but have ongoing tensions, including a territorial dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.
• 🚢 Japan is concerned about China's actions toward Taiwan and its potential dominance over vital trade routes in the Taiwan Strait.
• 🛡️ Japan's security is a concern, with worries that if China succeeds against Taiwan, Japan could be next.
• 🤝 Allies in the Indo-Pacific view the US commitment with uncertainty, especially concerning Trump's "strategic ambiguity" compared to Biden's clearer statements on defending Taiwan.