Elisabeth Braw on Trump's 'Rude Awakening' Regarding Russia's Ukraine Strategy

Russia's Strategy in Peace Negotiations

• 🇷🇺 Russia's strategy is to drag out peace negotiations rather than genuinely seek peace in Ukraine.
• 🎯 This tactic is designed to mislead figures like Donald Trump, who are eager for a quick deal and the credit that comes with it.
• ⚠️ The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister's statement that peace is impossible with Zelensky in power highlights a significant gap between Moscow and Washington.

Trump's Expectations vs. Russian Reality

• 💡 Donald Trump appears to be realizing that Russia is not negotiating in good faith and that his efforts may have been in vain.
• 💥 This realization is described as an "enjoyable awakening" for Trump and his team, suggesting disappointment and frustration.
• 🤝 Russia's participation in peace talks seems to be a strategic move to appease Trump, rather than a genuine commitment to ending the conflict.

Russian Military Mobilization

• 📈 Putin's announcement of a conscription of 160,000 men aged 18-30 indicates a preparation for continued conflict, not peace.
• 🎖️ This large-scale mobilization, the biggest since 2011, follows previous efforts to recruit soldiers, including those with criminal sentences.
• 🕊️ Such actions contradict any claims of preparing for a ceasefire or peace.

White House Response and Trade Measures

• 😠 Trump has expressed exasperation with Putin's approach, calling it "pissed off" and "diplomatically hacked off."
• 🇺🇸 Trump's desire to end the war in Ukraine was a key campaign promise, and he is reportedly considering new trade measures against Russia.
• 📉 Concerns exist among Western allies about Trump's more conciliatory stance towards Russia.

Ukraine's Natural Resources and Deals

• 💰 There are reports that the US is demanding Ukraine's natural resources income for years in exchange for a critical mineral deal.
• 🇺🇦 President Zelenskyy's legal team is reviewing this proposal, and he may be attempting to renegotiate or back out of the rare earth deal.
• ⚠️ Backing out of such deals could lead to significant problems for Ukraine, according to the analysis.