Elisabeth Braw on Trump's Iran Deal vs. Obama's and Potential Military Conflict

The Original Iran Nuclear Deal

• 💡 The original Iran nuclear deal, painstakingly negotiated over years, was considered a good deal that appeared to be working.
• 🌍 The EU and Iran remained committed to the deal even after the United States under Trump withdrew from it.

Trump's Stated Objectives and Potential Actions

• 🎯 Donald Trump has stated a desire for a "real end to Iran's nuclear problem."
• 💥 Achieving this through military force would require significant military power, potentially involving the US, which would escalate the conflict dramatically.
• 🤝 Trump's reputation as a "deal maker" might influence his approach, potentially seeking a new bilateral deal rather than military action.

US-Iran Military Conflict Risks

• ⚠️ Attacking Iran, a powerful and populous nation, would be a significantly bigger risk than invading Iraq or Afghanistan.
• 🇺🇸 Trump's isolationist tendencies suggest he might be less inclined towards military intervention, though his unpredictability cannot be ruled out.
• 🚢 The deployment of a warship is seen as posturing to signal potential US involvement.

A New Iran Nuclear Deal

• 🤝 A new deal would likely be bilateral between the US and Iran, reflecting Trump's preference over multilateralism.
• 📉 From a European perspective, a bilateral deal is considered less secure due to fewer participating countries.
• 🗣️ Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has signaled disapproval of Trump's direct dealings with entities opposed to Israel.

Regime Change vs. Nuclear Program

• ⚖️ Regime change in Iran is deemed incredibly difficult and unpredictable, with past US attempts proving unsuccessful.
• 🎯 Ending Iran's nuclear program is considered a more realistic objective, though the method (military vs. negotiation) remains a key question.

Nobel Peace Prize Aspirations

• 🕊️ The pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize might influence Trump's focus on Middle East issues, potentially overshadowing other global crises like Ukraine or Sudan.

Iran's Regional Standing

• 🌍 Iran is seen as an outlier in the Middle East, not a natural ally to most Arab states.
• 🇸🇦 Despite closer relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Arab states have been notably muted on the current conflict.