Edward Luce on Brzezinski, Kissinger, and the Revenge of Geopolitics

The Life and Diaries of Zbigniew Brzezinski

• 💡 Zbigniew Brzezinski's life and career are explored through his extensive diaries and letters, providing a rich historical account.
• 🔑 Brzezinski's family provided access to his diaries, which detailed his experiences and geopolitical insights, without editorial influence.
• 🌍 The diaries revealed recurring geopolitical themes from the late 1970s, such as the Cold War, SALT treaties, the Afghanistan invasion, and the Iran hostage crisis, which resonate with today's world.
• 🇵🇱 Brzezinski's childhood diaries from interwar Warsaw and his experiences during World War II add a cinematic and controversial dimension to his life story.

Kissinger vs. Brzezinski: Rival Strategies

• 🤝 Despite being rivals, Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski maintained a continuous dialogue, meeting regularly to discuss foreign policy.
• 🏛️ Kissinger viewed diplomacy through the lens of establishing order between great powers, seeing the Soviet Union as a permanent fixture.
• 💔 Brzezinski, shaped by his Polish heritage, focused on smaller nations trampled by larger ones, viewing the Soviet Union's internal nationalities as its Achilles' heel and predicting its collapse.
• 🧠 Both strategists were immigrants who brought unique perspectives to American foreign policy, supported by figures like the Rockefellers.

The Immigrant Perspective in US Foreign Policy

• 🇺🇸 The post-WWII era saw a demand for foreigners and immigrants with expertise in areas like Soviet studies, benefiting individuals like Brzezinski and Kissinger.
• 🚢 Both Brzezinski and Kissinger arrived in the US around the same time in 1938, fleeing Europe on the eve of World War II, a shared experience that shaped their understanding of history's fragility.
• 🌍 Unlike American exceptionalism's providentialism, they held a more pragmatic and sometimes controversial view of human capabilities and the fragility of civilization.

Geopolitical Shifts and Modern Challenges

• 🇨🇳 The current era is characterized by the revenge of geopolitics, with a lack of consensus on global threats compared to the Cold War.
• 🇷🇺 The relationship between Russia and China is seen as a reverse of the Cold War, with Russia as a junior partner.
• 📈 Brzezinski warned of an "alliance of the aggrieved" comprising Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, a prediction that appears to be materializing.
• 🤔 Brzezinski advocated for understanding and engaging with countries like China, even with differing political systems, rather than alienating them.

Key Decisions and Controversies

• 🇮🇷 Brzezinski's handling of the Iran hostage crisis is highlighted as a low point, with a lack of understanding of the region's complexities.
• 🇺🇸 The US provided a civil nuclear program to Iran without fully considering the consequences of the Shah's potential downfall.
• 🚁 The failed rescue mission in Iran, known as Desert One, is discussed as an example of misjudgment.
• 🇪🇬 The Camp David Accords, a rare area of agreement between Brzezinski and Carter, focused on normalization between Egypt and Israel, including the concept of a Palestinian homeland.

Brzezinski's Views on Ukraine and Russia

• 🇺🇦 In 2014, Brzezinski argued for the Finlandization of Ukraine, suggesting it should be a buffer state, a view that shifted towards NATO membership later in his life.
• 🇷🇺 He believed in stoking Russian paranoia about China to create distance between them, rather than fostering a US-Russia alliance.
• 🕊️ Brzezinski was involved with Poland's Solidarity movement and had a close relationship with Pope John Paul II.
• 🤔 Towards the end of his life, Brzezinski expressed concern about the unpredictable nature of the Trump administration, advising to "buckle up."