Edward Lucas on Trump, Vance, and the Ominous Shift in US-Europe Relations

Putin's Victory Day Narrative

• 🇷🇺 Putin promotes a distorted version of WWII history, portraying a blameless Soviet Union single-handedly defeating Nazi Germany and justifying its sphere of influence.
• 💡 This narrative is weaponized to frame the current war in Ukraine as a fight against Nazism, equating Zelenskyy and his government to Nazis, despite Zelenskyy being Jewish.
• 🎭 The May 9th Victory Day parade has become a central feature of the Russian calendar, eclipsing the October Revolution, used to bolster national pride and legitimize current actions.

Embarrassment and Geopolitical Messaging

• ✈️ Drone attacks causing Moscow airport closures are deeply embarrassing for the Kremlin, puncturing their narrative of success and imminent victory.
• 🇺🇦 Ukraine likely aims to conduct operations on May 9th to demonstrate their ability to project force deep into Russia, undermining Moscow's claims.
• 🌍 Invited world leaders, including China's Xi Jinping, may perceive Putin's inability to deliver a swift victory as a sign of Russia's weaknesses.

US Foreign Policy and European Security

• ⚠️ Edward Lucas criticizes the Biden administration's approach, particularly Jake Sullivan's focus on escalation fears, which he believes established a dangerous precedent that nuclear blackmail works.
• 🇺🇸 The Trump administration's past actions, including aid cutoffs and uncertainty, were regrettable and led to deaths, causing some in Ukraine to prefer a Trump presidency for a policy change.
• 🗣️ Joe Biden's warnings about Trump's appeasement of Putin are unlikely to sway Trump or his supporters, who may react by emphasizing their own peace efforts.

The Need for European Self-Reliance

• 🇪🇺 Lucas argues that Europe must not rely on magical solutions from across the Atlantic, as the old transatlantic alliance is over.
• 💰 Europe needs to spend more money, take more risks, and accept more inconvenience, focusing on its own defense and resilience.
• 🛡️ There's a danger of complacency, similar to the 1930s, with hollowed-out militaries and a lack of resilience to face current existential threats.

Historical Context and Imperialism

• 🇷🇺 Problems with Russia predate Putin, stemming from doctrines like Sergey Karaganov's in 1993, which asserted a right to protect Russian speakers globally, an old-fashioned imperialist approach.
• 🌍 Western nations, including Britain, ignored early warning signs from Eastern European countries about Russia's direction.
• 💡 Lessons from WWII emphasize honesty about history, acknowledging Western aid to the Soviet Union and refuting Putin's distorted narrative, while also recognizing past complacency and naivety.