Edward Lucas on Putin's Threats, European Unity, and the Future of NATO

Putin's Backfire: Consolidating Europe

• ⚡ The threat from Russia has paradoxically consolidated Europe, despite earlier attempts to divide the Atlantic alliance.
• 💡 Political polarization tends to decrease in the face of geopolitical danger.

Economic Pressure and European Action

• 💰 Donald Trump's potential economic levers include additional sanctions on Russia and action against nations buying Russian oil and gas.
• ⚠️ Trump's demands on Europe to stop Russian imports are seen as a tactic to avoid making difficult decisions himself.
• 🇪🇺 Europe has the capacity to deal with the shadow fleet, send more money to Ukraine, and seize Russian central bank assets (around 300 billion pounds) to use as collateral for a loan to Ukraine.
• 🇬🇧 Britain could start by addressing the 2.5 billion pounds from the forced sale of Chelsea Football Club, though government action is described as **"snails pace."

The Political Will Deficit

• 🎯 The fundamental problem is a lack of political will, not a lack of ability to act against Russia.
• ⏳ Blaming external factors like Trump distracts from the internal need to muster the political will to take necessary actions.
• 🇺🇳 President Zelensky's call for a security architecture and US backstop is undermined by past failures, such as the Budapest Memorandum, rendering written agreements potentially meaningless.

Towards a Post-NATO Europe

• 🗺️ A shift is occurring towards a post-NATO Europe that may utilize existing NATO structures but aims to reduce dependence on the United States.
• 🌍 This evolving landscape includes strong alliances in Northern Europe, question marks over France and Germany, and varying degrees of alignment from countries like Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia.
• 🤝 Despite historical rivalries, events like the drone incursion can lead to Poland speaking with one voice, demonstrating potential for unity.

Exploiting Divisions and Generational Struggle

• 🔍 Putin actively seeks to exploit divisions within and between countries, whether historical, linguistic, ethnic, or religious.
• 🚩 He supports various political forces, including the far-left, far-right, and the "greedy middle" (companies seeking to profit from Moscow), often by exploiting anti-Americanism or other ideological alignments.
• ⚠️ Intelligence services can exploit these divisions, making vigilance crucial as this is a generational struggle with Russia's imperialist thinking.
• 🇷🇺 Attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure are bringing the war home to the Russian people, potentially impacting Putin's fear of internal opposition.
• ⏳ Problems with Russia predate Putin and are likely to continue, even if he is eventually replaced, requiring a long-term approach to dealing with Russia's inability to live at peace with its neighbors.