Economists Concerned Over US Economic Data Quality Under Trump Administration

Widespread Concern Over Economic Data Quality

• 📊 A Reuters poll of 100 economists, data specialists, and Nobel laureates revealed that 89% are concerned about the quality of official US economic data.
• ⚠️ The concern is not about the data itself being bad, but rather about the data not being released on time.
• 🗓️ The administration is intentionally missing data deadlines, such as the second quarter GDP report, which should have been released by the end of July.

Allegations of Data Manipulation and Hiding

• 🔍 Economists believe the administration is hiding data and likely altering it to present a more favorable economic picture.
• 🗣️ Steve Bennon of MSNBC noted the prospect of corruption and political mischief interfering with federal statistics under Trump.
• 📉 There is speculation that the administration might manipulate data to avoid showing negative GDP growth, which would signal a recession.

Proposed Changes to GDP Calculation

• 💡 Howard Lutnick proposed changing the way GDP is calculated by removing government spending from the equation.
• 💰 This change would artificially lower GDP if government spending shrinks, a move seen as an attempt to cook the books.
• ❓ While there's no definitive evidence of altered statistics so far, the lack of transparency and proposed calculation changes raise significant red flags.
• 📦 The administration's refusal to release data is likened to not allowing anyone to open a box to see if the cat inside is alive or dead, suggesting that the data is likely unfavorable.