Economic Performance Three Months into Trump's Second Term: Stocks Collapse

Economic Indicators Under Trump's Second Term

• 📊 Unemployment rate has remained largely unchanged, ticking up slightly from 4.1% to 4.2% in the first three months of Trump's presidency.
• 📉 Inflation has seen a slight decrease, moving from 2.9% year-over-year when Biden left office to 2.4% for the period ending in March under Trump.
• 📈 GDP growth data for 2025 is not yet available, with Q4 2024 showing a 2.4% annualized growth rate.
• 📉 Interest rates have slightly decreased, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate falling from 7.04% to 6.83%.
• ⚠️ Consumer confidence has declined significantly, with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index dropping from 74 to 64.
• 📉 Stock market performance has been a major concern, with the S&P 500 experiencing a 14% decline in the first three months under Trump, potentially marking the worst April for stocks since 1932.
• ⛽ Gas prices have remained relatively flat, with minor fluctuations and currently hovering around $3.10-$3.12 per gallon.

Analysis of Trump's Economic Policies

• 💡 The analysis focuses on the expected impact of Trump's economic policies, particularly tariffs, which are noted as being on-again, off-again and not yet fully implemented.
• 📈 If tariffs are fully engaged and impact the economy, the expectation is for inflation to increase and GDP to decrease.
• 📊 Current inflation numbers do not yet reflect the full impact of April tariffs, as the latest data covers February through March.
• 📌 The stock market's decline is highlighted as a significant indicator of expectations about the future economy.