Douglas Holtz-Eiken on Trump Economics, Labor Data, and Tariffs

Shift in Republican Economics

• 🎯 Douglas Holtz-Eiken describes the current era as an enormous shift in the Republican party, making it almost unrecognizable from 20 years ago.
• 🏛️ He notes that both major parties are now interested in using government power as a cudgel, diverging from a limited government and personal freedom approach.

Labor Market Data and Accuracy

• ⚠️ Holtz-Eiken refutes the President's assertion that the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner rigged jobs data, calling it a baseless assertion detrimental to the institution's credibility.
• 📉 He highlights the diminishing potential quality of data from the BEA and BLS, citing falling response rates and smaller sampling sizes.
• 📊 The private sector, excluding education and health, has lost jobs, indicating a labor market at a standstill with neither significant hiring nor firing.

Economic Impact of Tariffs

• 📈 Holtz-Eiken predicts that tariffs of significant size will inevitably put upward pressure on prices and reduce consumer purchasing power, slowing the economy.
• ⏳ He emphasizes that the impacts of tariffs will evolve over quarters and years, not weeks and months, and the economy will eventually pay the price in inflation and slower employment growth.