Doug Clinton on AI Trade: Intact for Years, Distribution is Key in 2026

AI Trade Outlook

• 💡 Doug Clinton believes the AI trade is still intact and has a few more years to go, despite market fluctuations.
• 📌 Nvidia remains a favored stock, with models still liking the company despite current market sentiment.
• 🚀 Revenue from sales into China, particularly for higher-end chips like H200s and Blackwells, is anticipated to boost Nvidia's stock.

Demand and Infrastructure

• 📈 Demand for AI infrastructure, including HBM memory from Micron and turbines from GE Vernova, is exceptionally high, with products sold out for years.
• ⚠️ Investors are looking for clarity on demand into 2027 to feel more confident about incremental buying.
• 📊 While indexes support major tech stocks like Nvidia, the search for unique, incremental buyers continues.

AI Model Competition and Distribution

• 🎯 In 2025, the competition between OpenAI and Google's Gemini models is neck-and-neck, with both releasing strong iterations.
• 🔑 The major story for AI in 2026 is expected to be distribution of these models into daily workflows.
• 💬 Google has an advantage with its vast user base across platforms like YouTube, Maps, and Gmail.
• 🤝 OpenAI's success in 2026 may depend on securing strong distribution partnerships, potentially with companies like Apple or Amazon.