Donald Trump's Declining Popularity vs. Growing Authoritarian Control

The Irrelevance of Popularity in Authoritarianism

• 📉 Donald Trump's approval rating is at Nixon-era lows, with some allies beginning to distance themselves.
• 💡 The core argument is that popularity only matters in a functioning democracy; authoritarian projects aim to make popularity irrelevant.
• 🗳️ The danger lies not in Trump losing an election, but in changing the system so election outcomes no longer matter.

Historical Roots of Authoritarian Movements

• 📈 Authoritarian movements often begin with a legitimate electoral victory, fueled by economic anger, cultural resentment, and promises of restored order.
• 🎯 Historical examples like Hitler, Victor Orban, and Vladimir Putin initially gained power through popular support before shifting focus to institutional control.
• 🏛️ Once in power, the goal shifts from broad support to taking control of institutions, including the legislature, courts, and press.

Erosion of Democratic Checks and Balances

• 🚫 Authoritarian regimes often turn legislatures into rubber stamps, pack or ignore courts, and intimidate or co-opt the press.
• 🏫 Universities may be viewed as ideological threats, and elections can become symbolic rituals that confirm the regime rather than restrain it.
• ⚖️ The system begins to rely less on votes and more on fear, propaganda, and bureaucracy, leading to the slow erosion of checks and balances.

The Paradox of Power and Unpopularity

• 😨 Leaders often become less popular as they gain more power, with populations living in fear of repercussions for dissent.
• 🚂 By the time mass dissatisfaction is undeniable, there is often no exit ramp; elections, laws, and courts become ineffective.
• 🔑 Trump doesn't necessarily need broad popularity; he needs loyalists in key institutions like the courts, federal law enforcement, and state legislatures.

Trump's Authoritarian Playbook

• 🛠️ The playbook involves using democracy to gain power and then dismantling it, making it unnecessary.
• 🤫 Instead of jailing every critic, authoritarians create a cost to dissent, leading to self-censorship.
• 🔄 Trump's past actions, such as purging inspectors general and attempting to strong-arm officials, are seen as a rehearsal for a more overt authoritarian approach, openly preaching revenge and purges.