Did Xi Jinping Just Arrest his Rival inside the PLA?

Escalating Rumors of Arrests

• 💡 Explosive rumors have swept Chinese language media claiming that Xi Jinping has arrested Zhang Youxia, the de facto leader of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), and potentially Liu Zhenli.
• 🎯 This event is described as a "reverse coup" or "coup within a coup," as real military power had already shifted from Xi Jinping to Zhang Youxia.
• 📌 The speculation began after Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were unusually absent from a key Central Party School meeting on January 20th, alongside other officials from the "anti-Xi faction."

Five Versions of the Story

• 💬 The rumors range from a mild account of Zhang Youxia being questioned by the CCDI for corruption related to his son, to a dramatic version involving a violent arrest at a hotel on January 17th.
• ⚡ Another claim suggests Zhang Youxia, his family, and Liu Zhenli were "wiped out in one sweep" on January 19th.
• 🎬 The most cinematic version describes an armed confrontation on January 19th, where Liu Zhenli, with 200 elite troops, forced the CCDI to release Zhang Youxia, leading to a tense standoff.
• ⚠️ A fifth version initially denied the arrests but later escalated, reporting 17 arrests including Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, and Jun Xiaojing, Xi Jinping's former chief of staff, with Zhang's flower wreath reportedly removed from a general's funeral.

Arguments Supporting and Doubting the Claims

• ✅ Supporters point to multiple unusual absences, independent corroboration from various sources, and the historical accuracy of PLA-related rumors preceding high-level downfalls.
• ❌ Skeptics highlight internal contradictions within the rumor versions, such as conflicting reports from Mr. Tai regarding Zhang's secretary, and the implausibility of arresting Jun Xiaojing (Xi's loyalist) alongside Zhang Youxia (his rival).
• ⚖️ Doubts also arise from the power reality, as Xi Jinping is believed to lack the necessary military support to arrest such powerful generals who control key units like the Central Security Bureau and the 82nd Group Army.

Alternative Explanations & Outlook

• 🧠 Alternative theories suggest Liu Zhenli's absence is due to monitoring developments in Iran and a potential US military operation, while Zhang Youxia is busy with personnel decisions and preparing for retirement, aiming to force Xi Jinping to retire with him.
• 💡 The speaker's personal assessment is that Zhang Youxia has likely not been arrested, but acknowledges the brutal nature of CCP internal politics.
• 🚀 If the arrests were true, it would severely damage the PLA's morale and leadership, potentially making Taiwan safer by reducing the PLA's capacity to initiate conflict. If not, the ongoing power struggle will continue to destabilize the regime.