Diane Francis on Putin's Wager: The Russian Economy vs. a Degraded Military

The Russian Economy as a War Wager

• 🎯 Putin is wagering the Russian economy in the war, rather than solely relying on his army, which is described as "flagging and failing."
• 📉 The degradation of the Russian military is directly dragging down the Russian economy.
• 💸 A key factor that could impact Putin's ability to continue the war is the price of oil, with $40-$30 a barrel potentially starving his funding.

The Situation in Ukraine

• 🇺🇦 Ukrainians remain resilient and resolved, with a strong sentiment that they would rather be dead than controlled by Russia.
• 💡 Russian strikes are deliberately targeting energy infrastructure during winter to demoralize civilians, leading to evacuations from Kyiv.
• 💔 The ongoing conflict has resulted in significant destruction and civilian suffering, with power and water outages becoming common in Kyiv.

International Diplomacy and Sanctions

• 🚫 The US Treasury Secretary criticizes India for helping Russia flout Western sanctions by refining and selling Russian oil, particularly to Europe.
• 🇪🇺 Europe is also criticized for buying gasoline and diesel from India made from Russian oil, effectively laundering oil for Russia.
• 🇺🇸 There's a possibility of the US implementing excessive tariffs on Russian oil to combat sanctions evasion.

Security Guarantees and Peace Talks

• 🤝 Ukraine requires ironclad security guarantees before agreeing to any ceasefire, learning from the failed Budapest Memorandum.
• 🗣️ The Kremlin's "anchorage formula" suggests a tacit agreement with the US, though its significance is questioned.
• 🇺🇦 Zelenskyy is pushing the US to take a more active role, emphasizing their power to win and push Russia out.

European Defense and Global Order

• 🇪🇺 Despite efforts, Europe still lacks a substantial army and military force, hindering its ability to be taken seriously against Russia.
• 🛡️ A dedicated European army or armed force is suggested as necessary, as NATO's unanimity is hampered by individual member states like Hungary.
• 🇨🇳 China is profiting from the war by acquiring cheap Russian oil and supplying components for Russian missiles and drones, while not directly intervening.

Economic Pressure on Russia

• 🚢 Confiscating and impounding "shadow fleet" tankers carrying Russian oil is proposed as a necessary measure to cut off war funding.
• 💰 The EU's decision to loan rather than confiscate frozen Russian assets is seen as a Putin victory, as it doesn't provide immediate, decisive pressure.
• 🇷🇺 Russia is described as