Derek Scissors on Trump's China Trade Deal Risks and Negotiations

Trump's China Trade Deal Strategy

• 🎯 Trump's determination for good relations with China is creating significant risk, according to AEI Asia economist Derek Scissors.
• ⚠️ The perception that a deal with the US was not fair could make China more determined to appear strong and avoid caving to Trump.

Chinese Concerns and Deal Longevity

• ⏳ Chinese negotiators are concerned about the longevity of any deal made with the US, fearing it may only buy them time.
• 🗓️ They worry that a deal with the US might not last long, similar to how European countries perceive their current trade certainty.

The Push for a High-Profile Meeting

• 🤝 The US president desires a major meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, not just a brief encounter.
• 📈 This desire for a significant event with substantial dollar figures is a key factor in the ongoing negotiations and stalling tactics.

Potential Deal Structures and Risks

• 🛒 A potential phase one trade deal could involve increased US exports, mirroring past approaches.
• 📉 However, there's a risk of significant buildup followed by failure, potentially worsening the US-China relationship.
• 🚫 Mass Chinese investment in the US is unlikely due to grassroots opposition, particularly among Republican voters.