Demographic Shifts: Peak 18-Year-Olds and Their Impact on the U.S. Economy

Demographic Catalysts for 2026

• 💡 TD Cowen identifies multi-decade investment themes driven by demographics, moving beyond short-term rate fluctuations.
• 📌 A key demographic shift is the peak of 18-year-olds, signaling a coming decline in this age group over the next few years.

Impact of Declining Youth Population

• 📉 This demographic change will influence consumer brands, requiring adaptation to the preferences of older cohorts like Gen X.
• 🏥 It is expected to fuel a greater focus on healthcare and the needs of an aging population.
• 🤖 The trend also intersects with the growing role of Artificial Intelligence in various sectors.

Healthcare Innovation and AI

• ✨ Healthcare innovation is seen as a significant theme, accelerated by AI but also driven by a long history of advancements in the US.
• 🔬 An aging population is predicted to spur a resurgence in healthcare innovation, supported by initiatives like the Genesis mission, which leverages AI across national labs.

Autonomous Vehicles and Aging Population

• 🚗 The aging population is a tailwind for autonomous vehicles, as older individuals may lose the ability to drive.
• 🏘️ Autonomous vehicles can also support exurban living trends among older populations through services like robo-taxis.
• 🤝 They can play a crucial role in the elder care ecosystem, facilitating transport to and from care facilities and hospitals.

Investment Themes: Apollo Global Management

• 💰 Apollo Global Management is highlighted as a pick due to the aging population seeking investment solutions, particularly income-based products.
• 📈 The company is also positioned to benefit from the generational wealth transfer and broader wealth democratization through private credit and alternative investments in 401(k)s.