Davos 2026: IMF's Kristalina Georgieva on AI, Skills, and the Global Economy

Global Economic Outlook & Resilience

• 💡 The global economy demonstrates surprising resilience, leading the IMF to upgrade its growth projections to 3.3% for this year and 3.2% for next.
• ✅ This resilience is attributed to four key factors: a dynamic private sector, muted trade tensions, AI as a powerful growth driver, and effective government policies.
• 🧠 Uncertainty is now the new normal, requiring leaders to anticipate the "unthinkable" and adapt calmly to rapid changes driven by multi-polarity, technology, climate, and demography.

Key Risks and Opportunities

• ⚠️ Major risks include geopolitical disruptions, AI enthusiasm without corresponding profitability, natural disasters, and potential trade disruptions.
• 🚀 Significant opportunities for higher growth exist, particularly through the thoughtful deployment of AI (potentially adding 0.8% to growth) and unlocking the full potential of the private sector.
• 🌱 New growth sources also include energy efficiency, renewable energy, and fostering innovation for unknown future products and services.

AI's Impact on Jobs and Skills

• 🎯 AI is reshaping work significantly, with one in ten jobs in advanced economies requiring new skills, primarily in IT, management, and professional qualifications.
• 📈 There is a premium for new skills (up to 15%), and a 1% increase in new skills can lead to a 1.3% increase in overall employment, challenging fears of job shrinkage.
• 🧩 Policymakers have a critical role in bridging skills gaps by investing in education, incentivizing businesses to train, removing infrastructure obstacles, and creating an enabling environment for innovation.

Policy Priorities for Leaders

• 🌍 Leaders must prioritize global peace and actively work against fragmentation, which weakens economies and societies.
• 🤝 It's crucial to ensure AI benefits the majority of society rather than widening inequality, focusing on equal access to opportunities.
• 💡 The most important question for leaders is how they will respond when the unthinkable happens, emphasizing speed of response and collaboration to navigate uncertainty.

Addressing Growth Challenges

• 📊 Factors contributing to slower growth include aging societies (demography) and a lack of capital for innovation, especially in youthful developing economies.
• 💰 Government debt is a solvable problem that currently diverts resources, requiring political will and public support to reduce.
• 🇪🇺 Regions like Europe can achieve faster growth by completing their single market integration, including capital markets, energy systems, and free movement of skills.