David Rosenberg & Michael McKee on Stall Speed Economy and Fed Policy | Bloomberg Surveillance

Economic Outlook and Inflation

• 💡 David Rosenberg anticipates a disinflationary vector with the American economy operating on stall speed.
• 🎯 He contrasts current economic conditions with the mid-80s, where a similar GDP growth rate would have signaled an impending recession.
• ⚠️ Rosenberg suggests that without spending on AI data centers and generative AI technology, the economy would currently be in recession.

Federal Reserve and Jackson Hole

• 📌 The upcoming speech by Jerome Powell at the Kansas City Fed meetings in Jackson Hall is a key focus.
• 💬 The discussion touches on the definition of a "solid" economy, with Powell's stance being questioned in light of current growth rates.

Political Pressure on the Fed

• ⚡ A significant unplanned event is the President of the United States calling for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
• ⚖️ This is framed as part of a "Trump revenge tour," with allegations of fraudulent statements in mortgage applications being investigated.
• 📉 While Cook's removal wouldn't directly impact interest rate decisions, the political pressure on the Fed is noted.

Market Themes and Coverage

• 🎤 The episode highlights themes expected at Jackson Hole, including economic slowdown and inflation resilience.
• 📰 Coverage includes planned events and unplanned news, such as the political pressure on Fed Governor Cook.
• 🎧 The "Single Best Idea" podcast is available on Apple, Spotify, and YouTube podcasts.