David Dayen on ICE Optics, Government Funding, and NYC's Progressive Governance

ICE Operations and Public Response

• 🎯 ICE operations in Minneapolis, involving over 2,000 agents for a city of 400,000, have led to unexpected violence and a dramatic show of force.
• 💡 The piece highlights that people-powered movements, rather than politicians, are crucial for responding to such situations, drawing parallels to the civil rights movement.
• ⚠️ Politicians are seen as unlikely to lead the charge against occupations, with activists needing to push for action.

Government Funding and Political Leverage

• 🏛️ A potential government shutdown is unlikely, with discussions focusing on full-year funding versus continuing resolutions for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
• 💰 Even during past shutdowns, ICE operations continued due to existing funds for enforcement and removal, making a funding stand-off largely symbolic.
• 📉 The lack of significant political leverage or benefit for Democrats to block DHS funding is noted, as ICE operations would likely persist regardless.

Public Perception and Political Strategy

• 📣 The actions of ICE have significantly degraded its popularity and the President's approval rating regarding immigration operations.
• 🇺🇸 There's concern within the White House that the current situation, including potential chaos in the streets, reflects poorly on the President.
• ⚖️ The Insurrection Act, a powerful tool for federalizing the National Guard or using military troops domestically, is discussed as a potential but unpopular last resort, with past threats by Trump not materializing.

Trump's Populist Rhetoric

• 🗣️ Trump's recent policy pronouncements, such as capping credit card bills and healthcare policy changes, are characterized as "Wizard of Oz populism" – grand statements with no real apparatus or belief behind them.
• 📉 His past actions, like dismantling the CFPB and approving mergers that could raise credit card rates, contradict his new proposals.
• 🤷 The theory behind this rhetoric is a belief in the power of his megaphone and the perceived stupidity of his audience to accept these pronouncements as fact.

Progressive Governance in New York City

• 🏙️ Mayor Adams' administration in New York City is seen as a potential farm team for future progressive leadership, with appointments like former acting Labor Secretary Julie Su.
• ✅ The administration is focused on immediate, tangible results by utilizing existing regulatory structures and laws to benefit New Yorkers.
• 📈 While material impact nationwide might be limited due to differing local laws, the political impact is significant, demonstrating that the left wing of the Democratic party can govern effectively.