Daniel Fried on Trump-Putin Talks and Ukraine's Fate

Potential Trump-Putin Meeting Dynamics

• 🎯 There's a significant danger that Putin could manipulate Trump into a bad deal concerning Ukraine, especially if Ukrainian President Zelensky is not present.
• 💡 The idea of great powers making a deal at Ukraine's expense is seen as having a terrible precedent and being a fundamentally bad idea.
• 📅 A potential meeting between Trump and Putin is considered almost irresistible for Trump, with a high probability of it occurring, despite uncertainty about its substance or contribution to peace.

Concerns Over Ukraine's Exclusion

• ⚠️ Ukrainian officials express deep concern that two great powers might decide Ukraine's fate behind its back.
• 🔑 It's argued that Ukraine must be present in any serious negotiations about its future, ideally with European partners like the UK, Germany, and France, to deter Putin's agenda.
• 📉 Skepticism exists regarding the potential for a positive outcome for Ukraine from bilateral talks between Trump and Putin.

Historical Context and Body Language

• 🎭 Recalling the 2017 Helsinki meeting, Trump's physical deference to Putin was striking, with Trump choosing to believe Putin's version of events over his own intelligence agencies.
• 🤞 There's a hope that Trump will adopt a more assertive stance in any future meeting, as a repeat of his previous demeanor would be detrimental to peace efforts in Ukraine.

Diplomatic Maneuvering and Sanctions

• ⏳ A deadline set by Trump for secondary sanctions against countries buying Russian oil is approaching, with uncertainty about whether he will follow through.
• 📈 The possibility of broader secondary sanctions is seen as extraordinary and a potential indicator of Trump taking a tougher stance.
• 🇷🇺 Instead of punishment, Putin might be perceived as receiving a reward in the form of a summit, which could signal he is not politically isolated.

Conditions for a Deal

• 🇺🇦 A desirable outcome for Ukraine would be a ceasefire without formal recognition of Russian occupation and with no limits on Ukraine's ability to defend itself.
• 🕊️ While not a just peace (which requires territorial restoration), a stable and lasting peace with a sovereign Ukraine would be a strategic success against Putin's objective of total conquest.
• 🤝 A report suggests Trump will only meet Putin if Zelensky is also present, which would be a positive step, though Putin's acceptance is uncertain.